“We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligence to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.” – John Maynard Keynes, General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, 1936

The business entrepreneur who thinks that their business opinion is fresh, new, and desirable is one amongst many entrepreneurs who hold the same optimistic opinion.

As one amongst many, the entrepreneur is likely average in several measurements as compared to their peers.

Thus, their business opinion is likely average and the implementation of their business opinion will likely have average outcomes.

In order for the business entrepreneur to have an above average probability to have better than average outcomes, then the business entrepreneur should embrace and learn to overcome multiple trials and errors (small errors as Taleb recommends).

These multiple trials and errors filter out the clear business signals from the noise of average opinion.

Instead of anticipating average opinion, the business entrepreneur should pursue the certainty and the clarity that comes from trial and error as long as this same trial and error does not harm the business entrepreneur and other stakeholders yet causes them to grow and flourish.